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On the face of it, labour market Christmas cheer, much like Yuletide snow, appears somewhat thin on the ground. Without being too Grinchy, the run up to last month’s budget was accompanied by some awful employment metrics. According to the HMRC, payrolled employment fell by 180,000 in the year to October. British businesses ushered employees out of the door at the fastest rate since Covid and private sector employment declined by 1.8% in November. REC/KPMG did little to lift the prevailing gloom, as they reported a 14.4% drop in new job postings between October and November.

So, what does that mean for 2026 and hiring intentions?

I’m actually quietly positive. It won’t be a stellar year, but there are reasons to be, if not cheerful, then certainly a notch or two above miserable.

The issue with the budget was the anticipated fear of what it might contain – not helped by leakages and clumsy communications. Few commentators applauded it, but at least those making corporate decisions have more idea about where they now stand. Arguably the most influential audience, the bond market, appeared comfortable with what they saw. 2026 is also likely to see gently falling inflation and at least two interest rate cuts. Economic growth, according to the OECD will be in the region of 1.2% – unlikely to take the breath away but certainly preferable to some scenarios. 

As a result of 2025’s uncertainty, caution, delay and prevarication have taken over. Talent acquisition initiatives have been parked during the second half of the year. Headcount decisions have been on hold pending the budget. Recruitment investment is in the long grass.

But, with the budget out of the way, we now have some degree of certainty. 

How will employer and candidate audiences respond?

I think we’ll see an increased focus around two interwoven pillars – belief and believability.

Fear and apprehension are no strangers to candidate audiences. In the absence of alternatives, people are staying with their current employers longer. The employment economy has evolved from the ‘great resignation’ of 2021 to today’s ‘great stay’. We have become job huggers not job hoppers. The latest Future of Work research suggested that 64% of UK employees remain in jobs they dislike due to a lack of better opportunities. 

For those organisations looking to hire, then, in 2026, they need to create belief. They need to communicate to both internal and external people audiences a sense of belief in what they are doing and where they are going. 

They need to persuade current employees that although the last couple of years have been challenging, this is an organisation worth sticking with. They need to instil belief, confidence and positivity – because a business riven by caution and apprehension does not take risks, does not innovate, does not embrace change.

For external audiences, it is about communicating the belief that leaving an existing (and presumably relatively secure) role, to join a new organisation is worth the inherent risk, because of the future – and the belief in that future – that lies ahead. It’s about inspiring belief in a new employer’s story and the trajectory it describes. It is about building people messaging and a coherent, consistent narrative that establishes and fires that sense of belief.

It’s about creating a reason to move, a reason to stay, a reason to believe. 

But to build belief, organisations have to paint a believable picture. By definition, many candidates will be harder to prise out of existing jobs and employers because of the fragile market and the caution it inspires. The temptation, therefore, for hiring organisations is to err on the side of hyperbole and exaggeration. Rather than authenticity – which, for me, tends to lack context and objectivity – we should be looking to construct stories, scenarios and a narrative which are believable. Attractive, aspirational, inspiring, certainly, but, above all, believable. 

In constructing belief through believability, building is a key word. It speaks to perseverance, to purpose, to longevity.

The UK labour market has experienced a bruising three years. In order to communicate to candidate audiences that an employer is a credible alternative, that it stands out, and is able to deliver exciting and sustainable career opportunities, employer branding has to build a believable narrative. Audiences’ natural reaction will be to ignore, disbelieve and/or eye roll. That’s why consistency, patience and planning are key. You won’t inspire belief overnight amongst wary would-be applicants, but you can start that building process. 

That building process has to be based around understanding the challenge – what do internal audiences think of the employment experience you are delivering and how are you currently perceived as a potential employer by the audiences you want to hire – and by constructing a sense of belief that addresses such issues. 

This is the time of year when we put belief to the test like few others. Think about your own employer brand, your own people messaging. Does it inspire belief? Does it paint an inspirational narrative? Does it outline an inspiring future? Are there enough reasons to believe?

Are you outlining the journey your organisation is on? Are you making it clear that this journey is only achievable through the passion, commitment and belief of your people?

Because belief is a unifying, cohesive, shared feature. It brings together and coalesces workplaces.

Think about your two key audiences. Do you think your current messaging makes a strong enough case as to why great employees should stay? And do you think it’s sufficiently compelling to persuade talented, but cautious, candidates to join?

Take a dispassionate, objective look at what your current EVP is saying. How much belief is it landing amongst your core people audiences?

If you’ve any doubt, then perhaps you need to think about building more belief into your EVP and its messaging. 

For many, this has been a challenging, subdued last couple of years. It’s time to start believing again.