May you live in interesting times – it’s challenging to think of another moment in time when such a description wasn’t more apt. With the Middle East in flames, it’s largely guesswork to make economic and labour market sense of what the immediate future has in store.

The PageGroup’s latest figures bring into focus the difficulties of the UK labour market. The recruiter’s annual pre-tax profits fell by 67% and its final dividend was cut by 72%. Its shares have fallen by more than 40% over the last year and declined by another 15% this week.

This mood wasn’t lightened by news from the Bank of England, which suggested that UK businesses had embarked on the longest stretch of job cuts since the pandemic. On a quarterly basis, businesses have reported to the Bank of England that they laid off staff in each period stretching back to July last year, the longest run of redundancies since the late stages of the pandemic in 2021.

A similar tone was adopted by a survey from the Institute of Directors this week amongst UK business leaders. The survey indicated that sentiment over the economy had dropped from minus 48 in January to minus 63 in February. This all before the US bombing of Iran.

However, the UK manufacturing sector suggested some degree of resilience. Export orders across the sector recorded their highest level in more than four years, albeit with a continued decline in headcount. The PMI index for the sector registered 51.7 for February, the fourth consecutive month of positive growth. 

It feels as though for every positive step the UK economy takes, it retreats another two. There are hints of improvement, and the manufacturing sector is a tangible example, however, this remains business growth without employment growth. And the war in Iran, with the impact it will have on energy prices and economic sentiment is unlikely to bring positive news for employers and candidates alike.