We live in a world confronted apparently constantly by war and conflict. It is hard to avoid images of such strife – through ISIS atrocities, Palestinian-Israeli turmoil and political brinksmanship along the Ukraine border. And I’m caught in two minds around some striking iconic messages that have appeared very recently commemorating past conflicts. The near 900,000 ceramic poppies at the Tower of London were jaw-dropping in their beauty and significance. Further afield, the rise – all 104 storeys of it – of One World Trade Centre in New York, more than 13 years after the September 11st acts of terrorism, suggests hope and rebirth. This month too saw some staggering images from Berlin where the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, the end effectively of the Cold War, was celebrated.
It is hard to miss, obviously in the centenary of its commencement, images of the First World War – and whether you should perhaps associate commerce with such slaughter, it was a challenge to keep a dry eye when Sainsbury’s chocolate and football commercial rose the trenches.
Why two minds? It’s right and proper to record the sacrifices made in the past, as long we don’t forget – amongst shiny new buildings and staggering light shows – the horrors and nightmares that went to form such events.
The world of commerce and even recruitment appears to have taken on board such images and themes. Thanks to McKinsey, we have spoken probably rather glibly about a war for talent since 1998. With Christmas around the corner – first world soldiers taking on penguins – we have the supermarket wars. Ed Miliband has spent the last few years talking about a cost of living crisis.
Just as every war reaches its conclusion, does the war for talent now have a winner?
Rather than an individual employer or market sector, perhaps the employee has emerged victorious from the war for talent. Earlier this month witnessed a momentous moment for the 30m workers across the UK – average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses rose by 1.3% in the quarter to September, with private sector pay up 1.6%. Both of these figures were higher than the rate of inflation of 1.2% in September. The differentials are minimal, but this represents the first time since 2009 that earnings rose by more than the rate of inflation.
And actually, the great majority of employees might be feeling even perkier still. Delve more deeply in the statistics and we find that those workers who have been employed for more than a year saw their weekly earnings rise considerably more than inflation at 4.1%.
You want more evidence that the employee has won the war for talent? Be my guest. The end of October this year saw the announcement from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) that the recruitment industry is bigger today – by a handsome 6.3% – than its pre-crisis peak in mid 2008. More recently, the JobsOutlook survey of employers suggested that 87% of organisations were seeking to create more permanent jobs in the next three months and that 37% of employers are already reporting that they have no capacity to take on additional work without the ability to increase headcount.
And what sort of opportunity is out there for organisations who realise how the war has fared and who perhaps has the power now? UK retail sales rose in October by a whopping 4.3% on the year and an impressive 0.8% on the previous month. And given that UK retailers have adopted ‘Black Friday’ (the day after Thanksgiving) from the US, the run up to the key Christmas trading period looks hugely positive. But only for those retailers who have both the quality and quantity of employees.
Another sign just this week that employers have lost the war for talent? Randstad pointed out that the UK population decrease of 30-45 year olds – of 2.4% and set to increase – despite the overall UK population rising by 7.5%, suggests organisations will lack the leaders of tomorrow.
So hiring is up, as are wages and staff shortages and, indeed, business opportunities. TMP, perhaps not coincidentally, have had perhaps our busiest two months ever across the employer branding space. And yet, and yet. We are still, in some instances, working with our client partners to make the case for employer branding investment.
In the war for talent, a victor is emerging. Perhaps given the turmoil and instability of the last half decade, an unlikely winner, but a winner all the same.
And to the employees and candidate victors you need, is your organisation offering the appropriate spoils?
Getting to the heart of your employee mindset 