On the face of it, the statistics released by the ONS earlier today appear to portray an economy inexorably slipping towards a double dip. The number of people in employment fell by a significant 178,000 in the quarter ending August 2011. The percentage of people amongst the economically active population registered as unemployed was up to 8.1%. The last time this rate was higher happened more than fifteen years ago in July 1996. And the annual earnings growth actually fell by 0.1% to reach 2.8%.
Last one to leave, turn off the lights, right?
However, these headline figures hide perhaps a more nuanced picture.
Just 2,000 of the 178,000 fall in people in employment were individuals in full time work, the rest were part time employees. The most recent breakdown of employment figures by sector, between March and June 2011, indicates a fall of 111,000 people working within the public sector, but perhaps a surprising 41,000 increase in those working within the commercial sector over the same time frame. At the same time, the number of available vacancies in the economy, rather than falling, actually rose 1,000 between the second and third quarters and by a year-on-year 5,000 to hit 462,000.
Without a doubt, this is a challenging employment environment. However, it is not an entirely bleak landscape. There are just under half a million unfilled vacancies in the economy, a figure actually rising. And whilst the public sector continues to struggle with deficit-induced cost savings, the private sector is working hard to pick up this slack.
For those professionals able to transfer from public to private sector, opportunities do exist. And for commercial sector organisations seeking to hire great talent, the market is unlikely to be as soft and uncompetitive as the ONS’ initial figures might suggest.
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